Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
